Bearish or Bullish. Bitcoin Traders Argue Over Death Cross Outcome.
21 Jun 2021, 08:00
Bearish or Bullish? Bitcoin Traders Argue Over Death Cross Outcome
On Saturday, cryptocurrency analysts and traders have been discussing bitcoin’s recent chart patterns and the infamous death cross pattern has been a topical conversation. A number of traders believe when bitcoin’s short-term moving average (MA) dips below the long-term MA, the crypto asset could be bracing for a major sell-off. Meanwhile, others are sure the death cross technical pattern means the price is due to rebound and possibly double-top to higher values than the previous all-time high.
The Return of the Infamous Death CrossOn June 19, a number of Twitter conversations, forum posts, and even headlines discussed the technical pattern called the death cross in regard to bitcoin’s (BTC) chart. Bloomberg published an article concerning the death cross on Saturday and the publication featured a few statements from billionaire investor Mark Cuban. The definition of a death cross stemming from Investopedia notes the pattern suggests “the potential for a major sell-off.” The website’s definition adds:
The death cross appears on a chart when a stock’s short-term moving average crosses below its long-term moving average. Typically, the most common moving averages used in this pattern are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
However, the death cross doesn’t necessarily mean a bearish market is due. Investopedia details that death cross events led to traditional stock market crashes during the past century including 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008. Death crosses are not unusual and data from Canterbury Investment Management indicates the Dow Jones Industrial Average has experienced 84 death crosses since 1929. The popular economist and trader Alex Krüger recently discussed the situation of a death cross in relation to BTC/USD charts.
“The Death Cross takes place when the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average,” Krüger tweeted. “The Death Cross takes place when the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average. Journalists love writing about how a death cross could bring forth a bear market. However, one week historical returns following a bitcoin death cross are POSITIVE. Relax,” Krüger stressed.
Picture via Alex Krüger on Twitter.
The popular creator of the bitcoin stock-to-flow model, Plan B, also tweeted about the infamous death cross on Saturday. “Study this chart to see what happened [the] last two times the death cross happened, Q4 2019 and Q1 2020,” Plan B said to his 566,000 followers.
Picture via Plan B on Twitter.
However, an individual named Mohit Sorout responded to Plan B’s tweet and noted that there’s been a number of death cross occasions throughout bitcoin’s lifetime.
“There have been 6 past death crosses in bitcoin’s lifetime,” Sorout replied to Plan B. “4 have resulted in enormous downside. The two that didn’t lead to a downtrend were towards the end of a bear market, not after a full blown bull run. Choose your bias wisely,” he added.